1. The refs – Please don't mistake this as me saying that last night's game was officiated in a one-sided manner. I think the calls were equally bad on both sides, and I actually thought Indiana deserved to win regardless, but (as was correctly pointed out on "Mike & Mike" this morning) the tone of the officiating has definitely favored the Pacers this whole series: lots of fouls on the perimeter, but letting a lot of the hand-fighting go underneath the basket (hence Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh almost immediately picking up 2 fouls in the 1st quarter of seemingly every game this series and LeBron fouling out last night). Miami has countered that with some good ol' fashioned flopping by Shane Battier, and there is nothing wrong with calling games this way, but there is no question it helps Indiana. PS: look for a lot more whistles on the Pacers in Game 5.
2. Lance f***ing Stephenson – Anyone who has played pickup basketball has played with someone like Stephenson, a talented high-motor guy who always borders on being out of control. He's just as likely to take a rebound coast-to-coast crossing up 3 people in the process as he is to throw the ball into the 4th row on a simple entry pass into the low post. For teammates, Stephenson is probably more frustrating than anything else, but you live with the tricks to get the treats, which he delivered last night with 20 points and a couple I have the biggest b***s shots.
The biggest b***s.
3. LeBron's lack of low post success – After Game 3, this seemed to be the blueprint that I mentioned before, but the Pacers made things much more difficult on LeBron down low last night. They D-ed up on the perimeter much tougher, thus making those entry passes to LeBron much more dicey. When James did get the ball on the block, Indiana didn't allow him to back Paul George down for 3 or 4 dribbles before sending help. As a result, he was forced to either kick the ball out to someone who usually missed (Miami only shot 39% from the floor) or take tough contested shots himself that weren't dropping on this particular night (despite making a couple late clutch 3's before fouling out, he only shot 8 for 18).
4. No answer for Roy Hibbert or David West – This is a problem that won’t be going away anytime soon for the Heat, as all the talking heads keep pointing out that they aren’t going to get any bigger between now and the end of the series (say something more f***ing obvious, I dare you), but Indiana’s starting big men have bullied Miami inside in each of the 4 games so far, win or lose. They did it again last night to the tune of a combined 37 points and 24 rebounds, but it’s worth mentioning that they are the 2 main beneficiaries of the officiating tone that I mentioned above. West’s style of play is such that he is always a push-off on a boxout or screen or 2 away from being in foul trouble. Hibbert does a great job of going as straight up as possible when contesting shots, but he could easily be called for 1 or 2 more fouls a game just by chance alone. He also has been getting the “Shaq-treatment” on offense, which is to say he has basically been allowed to throw whoever is guarding him out of the way when fighting for post position; however, whoever is defending him seems to get called for cheap fouls if they even try to stand their ground. This drove me crazy with Shaq, as it's akin to a wide receiver being allowed to basically shove a cornerback to the ground without any flag, but if a DB so much as breathes too hard on the receiver he gets called for pass interference. Calls or no calls, it’s going to be a huge advantage for Indiana regardless though. Miami’s 1 answer might be to go super-duper small, with Bosh at center, LeBron as the only true forward, and 3 guards like Ray Allen, Wade, and Mario Chalmers. LeBron is really Miami’s only true answer for West. The problem is banging with him all game would surely take a lot out of him, but you would force West to guard either James or Allen I guess (or for Indy to go small themselves), and maybe if they played through Bosh more they could pile up some fouls on Hibbert. Or they could just hit more shots, which leads to…
Miami still has no answer for Hibbert.
5. Miami’s others still can’t hit a shot – Lance F. Stephenson is clearly that x-factor type guy for Indiana, but the Heat’s have been nonexistent for much of this series. What’s odd is that I actually consider Bosh and Wade as part of those x-factors now as well. They are both great players, but I think by now we know what Dwyane Wade is at this point of his career, and you pretty much can expect what to get from him night in and night out…but to me he is no longer a superstar-type player that can dominate a game. Bosh is extremely skilled, and while he is settled into his role on this team, he can still disappear at times. Last night it was partially due to foul trouble and an ankle sprain, but when both Wade and Bosh don’t get going, someone else from the others has to. In Game 3, Bosh and Wade both played well, but so did Udonis Haslem (17 points), Chalmers (14 points), and Chris Anderson (9 points). Last night, Allen and Battier arguably had their best games of the series, which is sad to say because they still only combined to shoot a miserable 5 for 16 for 15 points. Haslem and Anderson combined for 6 points. Chalmers was the 1 other that had a good game with 20 points, but that’s simply not enough. Haslem’s scoring in Game 3 was an aberration, but Miami better hope they got something from their others in Game 5, or else the Heat will have to pull out some Eastern Conference Finals down 3-2 magic once again.
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