Thursday, July 10, 2014

NBA Free Agency's Big 3

With no Internet access at my office, doing this exclusively from my smartphone...how's that for dedication?

With NBA free agents now officially allowed to sign with teams, we all know that LeBron James is this year's big kahuna. But much like the summer of 2010, there is a Big 3 of star free agents that could be moving on to new locations, and none of them may end up in the places we would have placed our bets on a few weeks ago.

LeBron James - As LeBron pretty much holds the entire league hostage until he signs somewhere, you could argue that free agency's Big 3 is really a Big 1, as the dominoes will begin to fall once James decides on a destination.

Where he should go - If he's all about contending for a title right now, the Clippers, Bulls, and Rockets are the best choices outside of Miami, but those teams appear to not even be in the running anymore according to what we hear coming out of James' camp. James would still make the Heat the runaway favorite in the the sorry East even with D-Wade's sorry knees, so Miami is probably where he should stay.

Where he will go - When James 1st opted out of his contract with Miami, I listed Cleveland as a longshot, but it seems like they might actually be the front-runner now. LeBron was under immense pressure to win right now after 2010. After 2 titles and 4 Finals appearances in 4 years with the Heat, that pressure doesn't exist anymore. And James doesn't seem to care what people think about him anymore either. Now, it seems he can just follow his heart (if it wasn't for that pressure, he probably never would've left the Cavs in the 1st place), think long-term about his career (Cleveland's other young talent and cap-flexibility make this a no-brainer), and doing what's right by his family (and as someone who has personally had to weigh career decisions against familial desires, I can attest to this).

Carmelo Anthony - Melo isn't the player and, as Jeff Jarrett used to say, doesn't have the stroke that James has, having no rings and not even much postseason success period. Despite Anthony's unparalleled talents as a scorer, I'm still convinced that he needs to be a team's 2nd banana for that team to be championship-level. But it appears several teams are still convinced otherwise.

Where He Should Go - The Knicks can offer him the most money, but they are probably going to be mediocre-to-bad for a year or 2 before they can get their s*** together. The Lakers are an option for Anthony because they can pay him and have the cap flexibility to bring on a couple more pieces right away, but that still probably isn't enough to contend in the loaded West. Even if D-Rose isn't healthy, Chicago seems like the obvious choice for Melo if titles are his number one goal though.

Where He Will Go - By all accounts though, Anthony loves his money, and despite what everyone preaches about winning, it's hard to fault anyone for that. New York can outbid everyone else, and Anthony's wife loves The Big Apple to boot (that darn family thing again). And rather than bashing Melo for taking the money over the possibility of rings, maybe we could praise him a little for being patient and staying the course.

Chris Bosh - Definitely, the most under appreciated of Miami's Big 3, you forget how good Bosh is sometimes...and that out of he, James, and Wade no one had to sacrifice more of and change more of his game to make the Heat work. LeBron's good enough that he makes whatever team he goes to a title contender (or at least a contender for the conference title) on his own. Melo is a dynamic talent and a star, but I think that only certain teams will succeed with him (depending on the roster construction). Bosh's skillset is the missing piece to a lot of puzzles though.

Where He Should Go - Bosh's case might be the most difficult of the 3 in some ways. He reportedly loves Miami, and if LeBron stays put you would think South Beach would be where CB belongs also. But that Houston offer is very very enticing. And that potential Big 3 would be nothing to sneeze at either.

Where He Will Go - Early on in this process, it looked like this was all a bunch of smoke and mirrors, and Miami's Big 3 would all re-up there and recruit some fresh supporting characters to boot. But with each day that passes, the Big Breakup looks more and more likely. And if you're Bosh, you have to like what Houston has to offer: more money, going back to your home state, and playing in a role that better fits your true skillset. I'm not saying Houston's Big 3 could touch Miami's, and Bosh might still be the 3rd wheel between he, James Harden, and Dwight Howard, but at least he could play his traditional role on offense and defense. The pick-and-pop possibilities with Harden are scary. He could also play high-low with Howard while still spacing the floor with his shooting for Dwight to work in the paint. And Bosh would no longer have to bang down low with centers on the defensive end as he's asked to so often in Miami. In a day and age where top flight big men no longer exist, a Howard-Bosh paint duo would be the best combination at the 4 and the 5 in the league.

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Too Many Chefs In The Kitchen: Evaluating Bryce Harper's Return

When I was just a little B-Court All-Star Junior, as a shy introverted kid I often preferred getting lost in my own imagination to playing with others. I was also an athlete and obsessed with numbers and statistics. It wasn't enough to pretend I was on an NBA team taking the game-winning shot...all of my sports fantasies had to be tracked. I actually had a notebook that logged everything from my fictitious basketball career's points per game to the card for each Pay Per View wrestling event for my GI Joe action figures.

For the record, Snake Eyes was my all-time leader in World Heavyweight Championship reigns.

Summertime was when I got the most bored and had the least other sports to follow, so baseball became a key cog in this fantasy world (even though I never played organized baseball as a kid). I imagined an entire lineup and batting order, complete with game-by-game box scores. When my made-up franchise made a mid-season trade for an All-Star infielder in exchange for a minor league prospect, it was impossible to choose which star putting up video game numbers to bench...instead, I simply rotated 10 guys through the 9 positions (my fantasy team had a DH, and several players were versatile enough to play multiple positions, of course).

However, as the Nationals are figuring out now, things just aren't as simplistic in real life baseball as they were when I used to play make-believe. This past offseason, Washington took a gamble that they could make it through 1 more season with Ryan Zimmerman at 3rd base. But his shoulder and throwing mechanics are so f***ed that routine throws to 1st are adventures now. With young stud Anthony Rendon primed to take over at 3rd and Adam LaRoche penciled in at 1st base, Zimmerman's only real move is to the outfield. But with Bryce Harper returning to the lineup from a thumb injury, Nats' Manager Matt Williams now has a real dilemma.

Not a clown question, bro.

When healthy, the Nats could very well be the best team in baseball on paper. Their starting rotation may be the best in baseball 1-5. And their lineup is already solid from top to bottom, but even at 21 Harper is probably their most feared and dynamic hitter. His return should provide a jolt and boost up everyone else as well.

But its Williams' job to juggle playing time, positions, batting orders, and egos here. He has already clashed with Harper once, and maybe unnecessarily, this year. (Harper was benched and publicly called out by Williams for failing to run out a ground ball...Harper happened to be nursing a quad injury and was reportedly under the weather at the time.) Now, not even 1 day after being back in the bigs, Harper is chirping about what the lineup should look like and where he should hit.

As it stands, Williams and the Nats have no easy solution. Harper's got to play...that much is easy. Right field belongs to Jason Werth though. Put Harper in left and that puts Zimmerman back at 3rd, Anthony Rendon at 2nd, and Danny Espinosa on the pine. Espinosa always strikes out a ton and is hitting a miserable .217 right now, but that would hurt Washington's defensive infield significantly. Zimmerman's struggles at 3rd are well-documented, and while Rendon can play 2nd, 3rd is his more natural position. LaRoche has arguably been the Nats best hitter this year. He also is one of the best defensive 1st basemen in the league, so moving Zimmerman there seems unlikely at this point.

The Nats could put Harper in center field, a position he has played well and has publicly voiced that he prefers, but that would drop Denard Span out of the lineup. No one is going to argue that Span can out-hit Harper, but that move could hurt in a couple of ways. 1st, Harper plays center adequately, but Span is one of the better defensive center fielders in the league. Also, Span is the 1 player in the Nats' lineup that is truly a leadoff hitter. Others, like Jason Werth, have filled that role in prior seasons, but no one else is a natural fit for that spot like Span is.

Good luck!

If only the Nats could magically move to the American League at the All-Star break, then they could play everyone and rotate guys into that DH spot to give a player a rest while keeping their bats in the lineup. Alas, that seems about as likely as the Wizards not overpaying to keep Trevor Ariza and Marcin Gortat (oops). So, to solve this the Nationals either need to make a trade or simply just play out the messy situation of rotating guys in and out of the lineup based on matchups, who might need a night off, etc. Having too many good players is not the worst problem to have. The odds in any sport are that someone will go down with an injury again sooner than later, and Williams will adjust the lineup accordingly. Until one of those things happen though, the Nationals are faced with a sticky situation as they try for another playoff push.