NCAA Inception

Dreams are always a funny thing, but I can’t think of a more mind-bending dream than the kind I had last night (oddly enough, it’s probably the most simple kind of dream you can have). Sometime in the middle of the night I woke up, staggered to the bathroom to relieve myself, and then stumbled back to bed. Once I got back to bed, I initially had a hard time falling back asleep…or at least so I thought at the time. At some point I realizd I was dreaming, but in my dream I was lying in bed in the middle of the night trying to go to sleep. So I guess I wasn’t actually having a hard time falling asleep, and instead I was asleep, but just dreaming of having a hard time falling asleep. I felt like I was in my own little version of Inception , and I needed Leonardo DiCaprio to come spin his little top to make sure I was in reality and not some other dimension.

I filled out my NCAA bracket this morning, and I can honestly say that I couldn’t feel less confident about my picks. This college basketball season has been as topsy-turvy as ever. Without getting too deep into it, I believe the reason is that the overall college basketball talent pool has really taken a hit the past few years. Obviously, the days of having the best college players stick around until their junior and senior years have been in the rear-view mirror for over a decade now, but it just seems like the one-and-done players have had a cumulative effect on the game over time, and what we get is a watered-down product. It saddens me because college basketball has long been my favorite sport to follow, but it is the reality of the situation, and I’m not sure the NCAA and the NBA are collectively willing to do anything about it.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand…the landscape of this college basketball season changed dramatically the day Duke freshman guard Kyrie Irving got injured. At the time, Duke was undefeated and the clear-cut #1 team in the country. The prevailing thought was that with Irving in the lineup, Duke was so much better than even the other best teams in the country (Kansas, Pitt, etc.) that they could possibly make a run at an undefeated season. Duke still finished the season with a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but who’s to say that they are any better than any other team seeded one through four now? Combine that with the precipitous fall of some teams (Michigan State was ranked as the #2 team in the country preseason and backed into the tournament as a 10-seed) the somewhat unexpected rise of other teams (San Diego State, BYU, and Ohio State), and the streakiness/inconsistency of another group of teams (North Carolina, Kansas State, UCONN, and Syracuse), and we have ourselves a mess. In past seasons, even if the early part of my bracket stinks I at least have had a good idea who would advance deep into the tournament. I have had years where I will barely pick half of the games right for the opening two rounds, but I will have almost all of the Elite Eight teams, Final Four teams, etc. picked correctly. Last year I picked fairly well, and I think my picks were in the top 10% in both ESPN and Yahoo’s nationwide tournament challenges. This year, I literally have no idea what I’m doing…and this is coming from a guy who watches a lot of college basketball. I might as well be picking games based on mascots and uniform colors.

In the East Region, I have mostly chalk all the way through. I picked 11-seed Marquette to beat 6-seed Xavier. I like this Xavier team, and Xavier traditionally does very well in the tournament, so this could very well be a foolish pick…but I also like this Marquette team, and I think they are better than their seeding. If I had any balls at all, I would take George Mason to beat Ohio State in the second round. This George Mason team isn’t just “good for a mid-major.” They are just plain good, and I feel like Ohio State is susceptible to an upset if the right team comes along, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger on it. Making matters worse, I have Ohio State winning this region by beating West Virginia and Syracuse in the third and fourth rounds respectively…so, no pressure, Buckeyes. In a couple other minor upsets by seeding, I have a physical veteran West Virginia team beating young and athletic Kentucky, and I have Syracuse’s zone taking down North Carolina.

My picks in the West Region are either going to make me look like a genius or a complete idiot. In the first round I have a wildly inconsistent but talented Tennessee team beating Michigan in an 8-9 game, I have 12-seed Memphis upsetting 5-seed Arizona, and I have 11-seed Missouri beating 6-seed Cincinnati. In the second round, I have 7-seed Temple taking down 2-seed San Diego State. I originally had Missouri upsetting Connecticut as well, but I switched the pick (you can even see that I crossed out Missouri and wrote UCONN above it on my original sheet). I am a big fan of the Big 12 teams this year. Plus, I don’t think UCONN is that good outside of Kemba Walker, and I think they will still be gassed from playing five games in five days in the Big East Tournament. Anyway, I digress…in the third round, I have Texas knocking off Duke and Temple taking down UCONN to set up an Elite Eight matchup of 4-seed Texas and 7-seed Temple, and I have Texas beating Temple to win the region…like I said, either a genius or an idiot.

The Southwest Region is probably the most boring section of my bracket, so I will keep it short. I basically have chalk the whole way through unless you count 9-seed Illinois beating 8-seed UNLV in the first round and 3-seed Purdue beating 2-seed Notre Dame in the third round as “upsets.” Eventually, I have top seed Kansas beating Purdue to advance out of the region.

While I had more upsets in the West Region, the Southwest Region is the wackiest section of the bracket to me. You have a #1 seed, Pitt, who currently has the label of “best program to never make a Final Four.” You have arguably this year’s best mid-major team, BYU (who also has probably the best individual player in the tournament). You have two mid-majors who have been so consistently good over the years that they are no longer really considered “mid-majors,” but who are having down seasons, Butler and Gonzaga. You have one of the most up-and-down teams in the field, Kansas State. You have the team with probably the most overrated seed of the tournament, Florida. And you have the team from a small school who I thought had a good chance of upsetting their first round opponent before the bracket even came out, Belmont. Anyway, I have three upsets by the seedings in the first round: Old Dominion over Butler, Belmont over Wisconsin, and Gonzaga over St. John’s. In the second round, I have Gonzaga upsetting BYU. I almost always pick Gonzaga to win a couple games in the tournament, and they almost always fail to do so (at least over the past few years). I’m wondering if as an 11-seed this year that they have been so overrated in past seasons that they are actually underrated this year. There’s a part of me that is telling myself to get off the Gonzaga bandwagon, but there’s another part of me that says they’re due…I guess we will see. In the Elite Eight, I have Pitt beating Florida to win the region.

So, after all the craziness I was talking about, I have three #1 seeds and a #4 seed that was the #1 ranked team in the country at one point this season in my Final Four. Hypocrital? Maybe…like I said though, I have little to no confidence in any of these picks. I have Ohio State beating Texas and Pittsburgh beating Kansas to advance to the title game, and I have Pittsburgh winning the whole thing. Truthfully, this Pitt team scares the hell out of me. They are tough and deep, but their tournament history is not great. They have been a top three seed almost every year for the past decade, and they have never made a Final Four. Three things make me think otherwise this year though. First, similar to my reasoning for Gonzaga winning a couple games this year, they’re due. Second, I think most of the other top seeds in this region won’t even make it to the second weekend of the tournament. Third, even if my second point isn’t true, this is the weakest of the four regions, and they should be able to handle anyone in their path. I say, might as well go for broke. Let it ride!