...of the year!!!
It’s that time of year again! After months of anticipation the NFL is back, which means fantasy football is back as well. This season brings a feeling of unpredictability due to the lockout. A flurry of player movement took place in a very small window of time, and rookies weren’t given the same amount of time to get acclimated to the teams and systems they were drafted into. Consequently, no one really knows how exactly any new players are going to fit in to their respective teams, so this fantasy season could be just as unpredictable. For the 1st time in many years I don’t think there was even a consensus number 1 pick this year…so of course this was the year that I, for the 1st time ever, got my league’s number one pick.
This year was the perfect year to draft somewhere around 3rd, 4th, or 5th, where you can pretty much be gutless, see how the 1st couple picks play out, and take the best guy left over. Having the number 1 pick in a year where there is no clear-cut choice is a stomach ulcer waiting to happen. My boy from last year, Arian Foster, seems like he was the number 1 pick in most leagues this year, but he’s been battling a hamstring injury all preseason. Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson averaged being in the top 4 picks among all Yahoo drafts, and outside of being injured they are guaranteed to at the very least be solid number 1 backs this year. I like Jamaal Charles, but I just didn’t trust him enough to make him the number 1 overall pick. Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers, and Andre Johnson rounded out the top 7 rated guys. To me, the “safe” (code word for “gutless” in this case) choice would have been to take Johnson, Foster, or Peterson. Even if any of them miss a couple games with injuries or have down years for them they are still probably good for 1,200+ yards and double digit TDs. But ESPN fantasy guru Matthew Berry said something on a Bill Simmons podcast that made me think…if you’re playing in a standard scoring league and you have the number 1 pick you should take Michael Vick. The big drawback with Vick is that because of his size and the way he plays he isn’t exactly a lock to keep from getting injured; however, Berry’s theory was that if he could stay on the field for 12-14 games and you pick competently for the rest of your draft he will singlehandedly win your league based on this: not only was he putting up great fantasy QB numbers last year, but he also would have been something like a top 15 RB last year (prorating his numbers for a 16 game season) if you took just his rushing stats as well. This also works with the idea that in today’s NFL, where not every team has 1 “workhorse” back anymore, you might even be better off getting one of the upper echelon QBs than RBs, and then you just try to grab as many RBs in the later rounds as you can hoping a couple of them stick. This also works because aside from Peterson most of the top fantasy backs from year-to-year basically come somewhat out of nowhere (Johnson in 2009, Foster/Charles/Hillis last year). Little did I know at the time I heard Berry’s theory that the number 1 pick would actually fall to me.
The logic behind it was sound though, and seeing as how I had never really made a bold early draft choice before I decided to bite the bullet and pick Vick. The risk involved will probably make it more fun to root for him to put up numbers anyway (although hopefully not during the 2 games they play the Redskins this year). If you look at the rest of my roster, it definitely will be a true test of this Michael Vick theory, as if he can’t actually stay on the field or for some reason underperforms, I’m shot. I like my picks, but it was almost as if the riskiness of taking Vick prompted me to make all risky picks! With my next three picks I decided to grab my number one RB, WR, and TE in order. Felix Jones (and a lot of Cowboys for that matter) could have huge offensive years, and he doesn’t have to share the backfield anymore, but he’s never actually put an entire season together before. Mike Wallace could be poised to put up monster numbers this year with a full season of Big Ben at QB, but he hasn’t shown that type of consistency to this point. Jermichael Finley looks like a beast and could supplant Antonio Gates as the next great unguardable TE, but there is no precedence him having a full season like that. After that my strategy was to not pick a single other QB or TE, and I left my defense and kicker for my last 2 picks. That meant a run of 8 WRs and RBs in a row. My plan of just drafting a bunch or those guys and lucking into at least 1 of them panning out worked last year with Foster (who I think was a 5th or 6th round pick), so I figured I might as well try it again this year. Maybe it is just some home cookin’, but I do think Tim Hightower could have a breakout year. Percy Harvin will at the very least be solid if he can avoid those migraines. Because of Phillip Rivers and the fact that San Diego loves to throw, every Charger WR looks good…so Malcolm Floyd could be a decent sleeper. No matter who else Buffalo brings in, Fred Jackson always seems to take the starting job by the end of the year. Also, he has been a good pick-up for me in the past. It’s possible Julio Jones could be a 1st round bust, but it’s also possible that he was worthy of the Falcons trading away like a gazillion picks to draft him, so I figured he was also worth a late round pick. Greg Little is another rookie WR that I’ve heard Berry and a couple other fantasy experts say great things about coming out of camp as a rookie. And James Starks and Ben Tate both back-up guys who have the potential to miss games due to injury. In the end, I think I could have a decent team this year, but it really does look like Michael Vick and a bunch of nobodies right now. Hopefully, Vick stays healthy and some of my late round sleepers end up looking like shrewd picks in the end, or else I might just end up looking foolish.
No comments:
Post a Comment