So, it's been 2 weeks since my last post, where I gave San Antonio and Miami the best odds of winning the NBA Finals, and where are we? Heading into tonight's Game 1 we have the Spurs hosting the Heat in a rematch of last year's epic Finals series. This might be the most hyped I have been for a Finals matchup since MJ's Bulls faced the Payton-Kemp Supersonics back in 1996. With almost a week off since the last Conference Finals game, the juiciest storylines have already all been dissected, but here's what I will be watching for.
1. Will LeBron shoot the ball? Last year, it took James about 4.5 games to finally adjust to the Spurs defensive strategy when he had the ball...which was basically to play a million feet off of him. LeBron has been a much improved shooter over the last few seasons, but San Antonio knows he really wants to get into the paint, bend the defense, and pick out a wide open 3-point shooter to pass to. You could tell that James often felt the awkwardness of being too open last year, which made him hesitate and miss shots he normally is automatic on. Will Gregg Popovich employ that same strategy? And will the smartest player in the league figure it out more quickly this time around?
2. Is Tony Parker healthy? He came into last year's Finals with a gimpy hammy, but he seemed to be full-go most of the time. Now, it's an ankle. The Spurs' bench is better this season, but they don't stand a chance if Parker isn't himself.
3. Does a better Dwyane Wade make up for a worse Miami supporting cast overall? I'm hearing a lot of this line of thinking over the past week: the Spurs are better than they were last season, and Miami is worse than last season, so the Spurs should win, right? But D-Wade was basically a shell of himself the entire 2013 postseason. To me, Miami's best lineups last year were with Wade on the bench (I think if you could track down the plus-minus stats, they would support that). Wade is still a shell of his former self athletically, but his reinvented mid-range, post-up, random cut, floater game is ridiculously good. Out of the 7 Finals games last season, I remember Wade having 1 good game in San Antonio, and other than that I think he was pretty lousy. This time around, I don't think that will be the case. Does it make up for the fact that Rashard Lewis will basically be taking over the roles of Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and Udonis Haslem combined though? Yikes.
4. How motivated are the Spurs? I know, I know...what more possible motivation do you need when you have a chance to win a ring against the team that brutally took it from you the year before? But we've all watched these Spurs for a long time. They are fundamental, a machine, surgical even...but you just never think of Tim Duncan and company as cold blooded killers. I'm not saying you have to have the LeBron in Boston deathstare to win, but I think Game 1 will tell us a lot about San Antonio's mindset.
5. What kind of lineups are we going to see? This is something that always fascinates me, especially when teams play against Miami. LeBron is the ultimate Swiss army knife, and his versatility usually makes opposing coaches adjust their traditional lineups and rotations. But like Indy, San Antonio doesn't normally like to go away from playing 2 bigs at once. Then again, when Miami played James at the 4 last year, they killed the Spurs, so matching up might be wise (especially because Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw aren't exactly the types of big guys who can punish a team for going small). Then again, we saw the Heat put James on Parker in crunch time at times last year. In those cases, if Miami is small and San Antonio stays big, that probably puts Ray Allen or Wade on the Spurs' big not named Duncan. We are likely to see some crazy lineups and matchups yet again.
6. How much will this series impact the way these 2 teams' rosters look next season? It's possible (and even likely) that both rosters will be extremely reshaped this summer anyway, but there's speculation that a Spurs win might send Duncan and Popovich riding off into the sunset, retiring with the belt. A Heat win could convince Miami's core to come back to try it again. To me, the 1st scenario is more applicable. A 5th title would be great send-off to a top 10 all-time great who's approaching 40 years old. And how long is our favorite sideline curmudgeon going to keep doing this for anyway? However, unless something drastic happens like Chris Bosh putting up a couple Roy Hibbert-esque bagels, my prediction is the Heatles stay put one way or the other. The fact is this: there's no where else better for any of the big 3 to go than where they are right now. South Beach is awesome. They play in the easier of the 2 conferences. There's no situation that would make it easier for them to win again than staying put. I think win or lose, all 3 opt out of the last years of their contracts, take a smidge less money, and let Pat Riley re-tool the role players around them once again. And who wouldn't want to come to Florida to play alongside James, Wade, and Bosh? Sounds like a good deal to me.
Oh, by the way...Miami in 6.
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