The last time James was on the market, the league and media frenzy was unimaginable. It all culminated with the oh-so-regrettable The Decision on ESPN. 4 years later, LeBron is in a very different position. He's no longer chasing rings (he has 2). Prior to coming to Miami, James' clutchness/greatness/legitimacy as a great player/mental toughness was often criticized (those things are no longer in question).
Basically, in every aspect of the LeBron James package that was viewed as a weakness in the summer of 2010, James is now coming from a position of strength. To paraphrase ESPN's Brian Windhorst, James needed Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and everything the Miami Heat had to offer 4 summers ago; now, they need him.
Of course, I would say that the odds-on favorite to land LeBron is still Miami. Teams will again look to move heaven and earth just for the chance to sign him, but the grass isn't always greener. And if Wade and Bosh also decide to opt out of their contracts, and the Big 3 collectively decide to re-up with the Heat at a discount rate allowing them the chance to add a better supporting cast, then it would be tough to envision a better chance for James to collect more rings than right where he is.
The point is that LeBron seems more at peace with himself now more than ever though. His got his titles. He's married. He seems to have finally grown comfortable in his own skin. Maybe 4 years ago, James was too worried about pleasing other people when he took his talents to South Beach. Now, his demeanor seems much more relaxed. It seems he is going to make the best decision for him, and damn what everyone else thinks about it.
James appears to be in a much better place than 2010.
If the Heatles have a gentleman's agreement to take a little bit less money, then I think James' choice is pretty easy. If Pat Riley and the Miami brass can successfully have some kind of come to Jesus meeting with Wade and convince him to sign on for closer to what he would truly be worth on the open market ($12 million a year? $10 million? $8 million?), then I think this is a slam dunk. If a very proud D-Wade still thinks he's a $20 million a year player (which he's due next season), then Miami may have problems.
The possibilities (even the ridiculous ones) then become magically delicious. James to Chicago to team up with Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose, Taj Gibson, and Jimmy Butler. James to Houston with Dwight Howard and James Harden. James back to Cleveland with Kyrie Irving, this year's number 1 overall pick in the draft, and a roster of young talent. James bringing Carmelo Anthony along with him to the Lakers to team up with an aging Kobe Bryant...eh, I'm not sure how great that sounds actually. Or my personal favorite, James to LA (but to the Clippers) to play with his buddy Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and being coached by a guy he truly respects in Doc Rivers.
Oh, what a tangled web we weave.
If James is about winning championships, the Cavs and Lakers seem the least likely fits. The idea of going back home to Cleveland is intriguing, but Irving has not been durable or consistent enough to make him championship-ready, and draft picks are too uncertain even in this year's talent-rich field. Melo's scoring ability as a compliment to the defensive attention James attracts and his willingness to pass is a deadly formula in any uniform, but I can't envision Kobe being anything but a shell of his former self, and we are talking about 3 guys who basically play the same position (if in different ways).
The other 3 choices put James on teams that are contenders already without him. And unlike when James 1st got to Miami and it wasn't clear how 2 guys who played basically the same position would mesh, the Bulls, Clips, and Rockets could slot LeBron right into his natural position on the floor. The Bulls and Rockets also have the ability to clear the requisite cap space to make a deal with James work. And the Clippers just had a guy agree to pay $2 billion for the franchise, so I don't think the luxury tax would stop them.
Other teams will likely pop into the conversation in the upcoming week, as everyone will attempt to trade away their entire roster just to clear up enough cap space for the possibility of signing James, and the teams I just mentioned are each intriguing, but at the end of the day Miami still looks like the destination to me. They have history. They have the Miami mafia. They have James' trust. What do I see happening? Wade and Bosh also opting out and resigning with Miami along with James, and all leaving a few dollars on the table so the Heat can bring in more shooters, a point guard, and another big guy who can protect the rim. After all, the Big 3 aren't dumb...it's likely they realize their best chance of winning is staying together too.
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