Buyer Beware: Is Dwight Howard Still Worth a Max Contract?

With the NBA’s trade deadline looming tomorrow afternoon, don’t expect a Dwight Howard deal to get done. Howard is unhappy to the point that he might pass up the chance to make more money and play for one of the league’s premier franchises by not resigning with the Lakers at season’s end, but that doesn’t seem to have any bearing on LA’s plans, as they are still convinced (or are trying to convince themselves) that Howard is the superstar to bridge the gap between the Kobe era and whatever comes next.

 

The LeBron era? Just kidding, guys. Maybe...

My question is whether or not D12 is a superstar anymore to begin with. While I don’t think he will ever be skilled enough offensively to build an entire offense around, his size, strength, and athleticism are enough to make him a dominant rebounder, paint defender, and finisher around the rim…when happy, motivated, and healthy at least. Happy and motivated aren’t even really that big of issues. The Dwight Howard who hated his coach, who threw his teammates under the bus, and who seemed mostly disinterested his last 2 seasons in Orlando still averaged 21.9 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game over that span.

This year his scoring and rebounding numbers are down, but it’s more than that. Howard is coming off major back surgery, and he doesn’t pass the eye test right now in the least bit. He looks slow, glued to the floor, and clumsy. (He already seemed clumsy at times throughout his career, but his current physical state exacerbates his clumsiness even more.) He used to be an intimidating physical presence, a chiseled body with pogo sticks for legs. In the dunk contests he participated in, he actually did dunks that I’d never seen before (a rare feat at this point). This year, I’m not sure if he scares anybody. To me, he looks like what I would have thought 39 year old Dwight Howard would look like.

 

For the last 5 years or so, Howard has been thought of as far and away the best center in the world. Based on the play of all the centers in the league this year alone, how many would you pick over Howard to play in a game right now? Tyson Chandler, Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, KG, Chris Bosh (both playing center right now), Tim Duncan (yes, he is a center for crying out loud), DeAndre Jordon, and Marc Gasol for sure. That’s 10 guys right there. Andre Drummond? JaVale McGee? Al Jefferson? DeMarcus Cousins? Those might be more of a stretch, but to say he hasn’t nearly been the most productive, effective, or intimidating player at the center position this year would be a huge understatement.

But that’s where Howard is at right now. To be fair, yes, he hates playing with Kobe. Yes, Mike D’Antoni’s system is not exactly attuned to his skill set. And no, he is far from healthy. But will he ever be the player he was ever again? I’m not sure he will be, and that’s also fair considering somebody (whether it’s the Lakers, Nets, or someone else) is going to sign him to a max contract this summer.